Disruptive technology (was: off topic) - still is off topic ;-)

[Daniel Carrera]

Sef wrote:
> Will Linux/GNU ever totally replace Microsoft?  Unlikely at least in
> the near future.  Who knows what the far future will bring.

Well, "totally" is probably the wrong thing to aim for because 
technically as long as one person (e.g. Bill Gates) uses Windows then 
Linux hasn't replaced it "totally" :)  And before we reach that point 
I'd expect Microsoft to change its ways and accept that it can't be a 
monopoly anymore. Think of IBM. They used to be the monopolist, and they 
lost that monopoly, but they're still around.

What I expect will happen is the typical "disruptive technology" 
scenario. As GNU/Linux grows, Windows will retreat into more 
specialized, high-margin and low-volume sectors. People who are willing 
to pay premium price for a stupid gadget. Think of where Apple is right 
now, that's similar to where I expect Microsoft will end up. Apple 
buyers are willing to buy vastly over-priced hardware just to run a few 
programs that they like a lot. Microsoft will end up in a similar place.

Notice, I'm not saying that Microsoft currently has any product worthy 
of that role. What I'm saying is that, to survive, they'll have to 
develop one. I don't know what products those will be, but whatever it 
is, Microsoft will endup being a niche player.

In general, I'd expect that every propietary vendor will end up a niche 
player. That's because comodity markets are where open source is 
naturally strongest and niche markets where it's weakest (fewer 
interested volunteers).

Chers,
Daniel.
-- 
      /\/`) http://opendocumentfellowship.org
     /\/_/
    /\/_/   A life? Sounds great!
    \/_/    Do you know where I could download one?
    /