[Bug 1] Re: Microsoft has a majority market share

[Conrad Knauer]

wyo: I can understand your frustration, but its not as bad as you
describe and there are certain factual points I take issue with. (oh and
BTW I got a 502 error on the URL you posted; is it the same as
https://www.linux-
foundation.org/images/3/3b/DTL_Survey_Report_Nov2005.pdf ?)

First: "It seems regardless how much effort ever is spent it has no
effect at all on Microsoft's market share."

There are two metrics you can use for that:

(1) the first is new computers sold.  The situation has improved
recently, most notably with Dell doing Ubuntu preloads (in the U.S.,
U.K., France, Germany, Canada, Latin America and now China:
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2008/02/24/dell-continues-to-expand-its-
ubuntu-sales-area/) and the rise of low end systems (e.g. gPC @ $200 US)
and sub-notebook (e.g. Eee PC; see
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/153/ I also note HP is planning
a similar system: http://apcmag.com/8342/hp_preps_eee_pc_killer with a
Linux version that's supposed to be quite a bit ($150 or ~25%) cheaper
than the Vista version, probably due to a combination of reduced
hardware requirements and a free OS).  In order to really crack the MS
monopoly there has to be significant inroads here.

(2) the second is the overall market share (as in what is actually
installed on computers right now, irrespective of what they were sold
with) and that's where Desktop Linux has the bulk of its market share.
What I have noticed is that just about every technically-inclined person
online (I'm going to define that as someone who can install an OS...
that rules out most 'average users' IMHO) has at least head of Ubuntu
and a very large percentage have tried it.  Any computer not up to Vista
*realistic* requirements (so... manufactured before 2007 unless heavily
upgraded ;) is an excellent candidate for Ubuntu.  When my neighbor (a
nice older lady) bought herself a used computer (with Windows 98)
several years ago I ended up doing tech support for it (or, as I recall,
more like babysitting that machine).  I imagine that most people who
have tried Ubuntu end up getting asked for help with others' PCs.  When
she was in the market for a new computer a couple years ago I made sure
that the first thing we did was to put Ubuntu on it.  My primary reason
to go over there now is to get her system to install new versions every
half year (though she did the last one by herself via the update
manager; I was so impressed! :-) and to deal with Bug #83286 (but its an
easy fix :).  I think it is reasonable that a lot of XP systems will get
a second life this way.  I also think that a strong base has been built
here, though I would like to hear some recent numbers about the number
of Ubuntu users out there.

Second: "Microsoft's position is even stronger than it was 2 years ago."

I think the opposite; previously Microsoft had XP and people were happy
enough with it because of resistance to change.  Microsoft still ran ads
about how great XP was.  After Vista was released, things didn't go very
good at all.  The switch was flipped and suddenly Vista was 'the most
secure Windows ever' and so Microsoft basically admitted that yes, XP
wasn't really secure at all.  But Vista wasn't a prize itself and (as I
mentioned earlier) had significantly increased hardware requirements.
Microsoft has anti-trust worries in the EU.  Apple is selling a *lot* of
systems.

"It has the power to press a horrible UI (Office 2007) onto users
without any market share impact."

The UI of Office 2007 isn't the important thing about it, its the
default document format.  I am glad to say that MS might not get its
DOCX made into an ISO standard, but we shall see (keep an eye on
http://www.groklaw.net/ for updates).

"Microsoft can threaten to overpower Mozilla"

But Microsoft is losing the second browser war!  Regardless of the
source, if you look at Firefox's market share year-to-year (month-to-
month can be volatile), FF continues to climb against IE.  Here's a nice
graph I made of the stats from the data on w3schools.com (actual numbers
are only for that site, but the trends are there)

http://members.shaw.ca/Limulus/files/w3sbw2-0801.png

IE7 adoption has plateaued, web-wide quite possibly at a level below IE6. See also:
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2007/10/04/microsoft-must-be-hurting-for-market-share-no-more-wga-for-ie7/

IE6+7 continues to drop as FF rises.  See also:
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2007/11/17/jancos-browser-wars-graph-1997-2007/

Further crunching the numbers from that site, it looks like a LOT of the
Vista adopters (>50%) use Firefox:
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2008/02/09/w3schools-firefox-marches-on-
in-2008/

"and IMO it's just a matter of time when IE will take over the lead
again pressing Silverlight onto us."

Silverlight is an interesting problem; I really think that Adobe might have to GPL it to save Flash from Microsoft; but as much as MS wants it to become a Flash killer, I don't think IE itself will get it here; e.g. Have you seen the European browser stats?
http://limulus.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/xitimonitor-browser-data-microsoft-has-effectively-lost-control-of-australia-and-half-of-europe/

They'll have to convince Firefox users to install it and that's a bit of
a chicken-and-egg problem for MS.

"Microsoft has done much to improve Windows and I do fear it's also just
a matter of time when Windows will start threatening Linux on servers as
well."

Hasn't MS always 'threatened' Linux on servers?  But to raise a point I
read elsewhere, what major web companies (e.g. Google, Yahoo, etc.) that
aren't MS use MS servers?  To bring up a point MS loves to try to twist
in its favor, the TCO of MS servers is far greater.  Basically so long
as MS charges for its software, software libre will survive.

But right now its doing better than that IMHO, so cheer up a bit :)

-- 
Microsoft has a majority market share
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