The End of IPv4

[Kevin Hunter]

At 1:23pm -0500 Sun, 13 Feb 2011, Avi wrote:
> And, even that said, it's far more likely that we'll just end up
> with NAT upon NAT of ip4 connectivity, since there's no financial
> incentive for anyone to switch to ip6, and nobody yet makes stable
> ip6 networking gear (for the same reason).

This is a good analysis.  Until something happens to give companies an 
incentive to invest in and create quality IPv6 infrastructure, it won't 
happen.  Relatedly, the military is a rather large spender in most 
economies, and news like this offers hope:

http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/122010-dod-strongarms-suppliers-on-ipv6.html

If more big economic entities put stipulations like this in their 
contracts, we'll see improvement in this area.  I have hope.

> It's not like running out ip4 address space is going to kill the net,
> just stop more people from joining.

Which is the whole issue.  At the point that no one else can join, it 
leaves those who already have IP addresses in a considerable position of 
power, both monetarily and -- more importantly -- in terms of free 
speech.  Yes, we have venues /currently/ but the point that IP addresses 
become a limited commodity, they gain value via the basic law of supply 
and demand.  When that happens, you can rest assured that someone, or a 
group of someones, will attempt to gain power by monopolizing the 
resource.  It may take awhile, but it will happen.

Though I abhor the armed forces, and more generally dislike large 
business, I hope more follow their example in the IPv6 regard.

Cheers,

Kevin