"Reasons to stick with Windows Vista and avoid Ubuntu"

[Conrad Knauer]

On 8/29/07, Tommy Trussell <tommy.trussell at gmail.com> wrote:

> > Windows users
> > are held hostage by the fact that they don't normally have a real
> > Windows CD, but rather only an OEM-supplied one (if that!) that's
> > specific to their machine and has all the crapware preinstalled.
>
> theoretically... but according to this writer --
> http://articles.tlug.jp/Windows_Is_Free -- the fact that "cracked"
> versions of Windows are readily and widely available is a major reason
> people don't even bother installing linux. So his premise is that
> Microsoft's market dominance actually DEPENDS upon pirated software.

That's actually very much true in places like China but the fact that
OEMs preload Windows is what really drives it in North America as it
creates the impression among the public that windows is "free" since
it came with their computer in the first place (compare with a "free"
toy at a fast food restaurant when a children's meal is purchased) and
so they don't gripe about the 'Microsoft Tax'.

Here are my comments on that article BTW:

===
	from		Conrad Knauer
	date		Aug 16, 2007 3:09 AM	
	subject		Comments regarding "Windows Is Free"	
	mailed-by		gmail.com	

Hi there! ^_^

I read your article "Windows Is Free: The impact of pirated software
on free software" on http://tlug.jp/articles/Windows_Is_Free and I
just wanted to send a few comments.

First, about the question you posed: "isn't it in ultimately in
Microsoft's interest to allow pirated copies of Windows to be out
there?"

A resounding YES!  And in fact Bill Gates and others in Microsoft have
stated exactly that on-the-record:

---
An excerpt from "How Microsoft conquered China", dated July 17 2007
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/07/23/100134488/

Today Gates openly concedes that tolerating piracy turned out to be
Microsoft's best long-term strategy. That's why Windows is used on an
estimated 90% of China's 120 million PCs. "It's easier for our
software to compete with Linux when there's piracy than when there's
not," Gates says. "Are you kidding? You can get the real thing, and
you get the same price." Indeed, in China's back alleys, Linux often
costs more than Windows because it requires more disks. And
Microsoft's own prices have dropped so low it now sells a $3 package
of Windows and Office to students. […] Microsoft's China strategy is
clearly paying off. More than 24 million PCs will be sold this year,
adding to the 120 million already in place. Although the company's
China revenues average no more than $7 for every PC in use (compared
with $100 to $200 in developed countries), Gates says those figures
will eventually converge.
---
Note this BTW:

Update: Microsoft cuts Windows Vista price in China
http://news.yahoo.com/s/infoworld/20070803/tc_infoworld/90717

Microsoft has dramatically cut the price of Windows Vista in China in
a bid to boost sales of its new operating system. Microsoft cut the
retail price of Windows Vista Home Basic in China to 499 renminbi
($65.80), from 1,521 renminbi -- a 67 percent reduction. The Home
Premium version of Vista also got a significant price reduction, down
50 percent from 1,802 renminbi to 899 renminbi. The new prices, which
were introduced Wednesday and outlined in a statement from the company
on Friday, represent a steep discount compared to what users in the
U.S. and elsewhere are charged for the software. Microsoft's Web site
lists the recommend U.S. retail price of Vista Home Basic at $199,
with Home Premium priced at $239. Microsoft also plans to discount
retail pricing for the Business and Ultimate versions of Vista in
China, but the statement did not indicate how big those reductions
will be. [...] China is the world's second-largest PC market, and is
counted among the fastest growing markets in the world. But it also
has one of the highest software piracy rates, and many white-box PC
makers and consumers install pirated versions of Microsoft's software
on their computers. The main problem is cost. Chinese users have long
complained that Microsoft's software prices, traditionally kept in
line with those set in other markets, were unrealistically high, given
local incomes. Reducing Vista's price in China narrows the price gap
between original versions of Microsoft's software and pirated copies,
and should result in higher sales.
---

Excerpts from "If You're Going To Steal Software, Steal From Us:
Microsoft Exec", dated March 12, 2007
http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=198000211

"If they're going to pirate somebody, we want it to be us rather than
somebody else"

"We understand that in the long run the fundamental asset is the
installed base of people who are using our products"

"What you hope to do over time is convert them to licensing the software."
---

An excerpt from "Gates, Buffett a bit bearish", dated July 2, 1998
http://news.com.com/2100-1023-212942.html

Although about 3 million computers get sold every year in China, but
people don't pay for the software […] Someday they will, though. As
long as they are going to steal it, we want them to steal ours.
They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to
collect sometime in the next decade.
---

Second, regarding "What Can You Do With This Information?" at the end,
I would recommend targeting OEMs; right now Dell is selling some
systems with Ubuntu pre-loaded and for the same hardware they're ~$50
less than the Windows systems (and for the low-end systems I've seen
differences of >$100!).  That's significant for a computer costing
$500 or less.  Because consumers are used to getting Windows for
'free' when they buy the hardware (and they certainly pay for hardware
:) that's the point at which you can get them to really look into
Linux; would they be willing to buy a computer that cost that much
less if it didn't have Windows preloaded? (and certainly if they were
going to pirate *anyway* that would appeal to them...)

The more OEMs that preload Linux, the better.  Soon you'll get the
price tags lined up and Windows sales will start to go down...

Sincerely,
Conrad Knauer
===